The Art of the New Cold War Newsletter

The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, its lessons for America, and how America can avoid Rome’s fate. Part I

Welcome to the The Art of the New Cold War Newsletter.

First, let me begin by apologizing for the delay in getting this edition out. It has taken me a bit longer than usual, and caused me to think a bit more deeply. I have also been contemplating a new book. Stay tuned for more on that in the future.

In this special edition, we explore the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, its lessons for America, and how America can avoid Rome’s fate. This is Part I of what will be a multi part series coming out over the next few months, interspersed with normal editions of the Newsletter as we return to more regularly scheduled programming.

Please share and subscribe. And as always, for more, please check out my book: The Art of The New Cold War

Feedback is always welcomed. Thank you for reading!

Topic: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, what lessons it holds for America, and how America can avoid Rome’s fate. Part I

Like so many, I have spent time these last few weeks watching the events play out in Afghanistan, and pondering its meaning and long term implications for America. Some of my thoughts are contained in the previous Afghanistan edition of the Newsletter. But it has also caused me to wonder more broadly whether it is a harbinger of America’s decline and fall, or the opposite, the spark for its renewal. Being a student of history, and always mindful of that wise aphorism regarding those who neglect to learn from it, I sought guidance in the past.

America is not of course the first nation to encounter troubles in Afghanistan, known for good reason as the “graveyard of empires.” Prior to America, the Soviet Union failed spectacularly in Afghanistan, leading to its ultimate demise only but a few years later.

But there are also historical examples of failure in Afghanistan leading to a nation's renewal.

Take the British. Who in 1842 were embarrassingly defeated by Afghan warlords. Far from leading to the fall or decline of the British Empire, however, it caused the British to recalibrate and concentrate on more important interests and competitors, including China. A fact portending America’s current situation. As Gregory Mitrovich writes in an excellent piece in the South China Morning Post entitled America in decline? China still has a way to go before it can seriously challenge the US:

“Although the victory of the Taliban is a blow to the US, there is an important historical lesson that China should remember. In 1842, the Afghan warlords had defeated British efforts to install a ruler who was friendly to British interests, giving credence to Afghanistan’s reputation as the “graveyard of empires”.

However, this ignores the reason Britain accepted this setback; it chose instead to focus on the Opium War in China, a defeat which Chinese leaders still regard as the beginning of the “century of humiliation”. As Beijing must understand, the US is similarly abandoning Afghanistan in 2021 to concentrate on its contest with China.”.

Thus, history shows that America’s failure in Afghanistan, as dire as it currently appears, does not necessarily portend America’s fall and decline. In fact, it could even provide the catalyst to just the opposite--a new rise to even greater heights.

This question of whether Afghanistan will be for America a harbinger of decline and fall, or catalyst for renewal, brought me to ponder the decline and fall of another famous empire: The Roman Empire. And to compare the circumstances that brought it down with those of present day America.

Comparisons between America and the Roman Empire are not new of course and are in fact—forgive the pun—legion, and even something of a cottage industry. I am also mindful of the potential folly of going too far in projecting the unique factors and circumstances that befell the Roman Empire a thousand years ago onto 21st century America. But there are, I believe, instructive lessons for America from Rome’s decline and fall. Even glaring warnings that should be heeded. And as I pondered the causes of Rome’s decline and fall, I saw similarities to many of the ills currently plaguing America.

To that end, the History Channel has compiled a handy list of 8 main causes for the decline and fall of the Roman Empire generally agreed upon by historians. They are as follows:

1. Invasions by Barbarian tribes

2. Economic troubles and overreliance on slave labor

3. The rise of the Eastern Empire

4. Overexpansion and military overspending

5. Government corruption and political instability

6. The arrival of the Huns and the migration of the Barbarian tribes

7. Christianity and the loss of traditional values

8. Weakening of the Roman legions

In this Part I, we will analyze the first cause above and its application and analogy to America, and how America can avoid Rome’s fate.

I. Invasions by Barbarian tribes:

One of the chief causes agreed upon by historians for the Roman Empire’s collapse was a string of military losses against outside forces like the Goths and the Vandals.

The History Channel explains:

“The most straightforward theory for Western Rome’s collapse pins the fall on a string of military losses sustained against outside forces. Rome had tangled with Germanic tribes for centuries, but by the 300s “barbarian” groups like the Goths had encroached beyond the Empire’s borders. The Romans weathered a Germanic uprising in the late fourth century, but in 410 the Visigoth King Alaric successfully sacked the city of Rome. The Empire spent the next several decades under constant threat before “the Eternal City” was raided again in 455, this time by the Vandals. Finally, in 476, the Germanic leader Odoacer staged a revolt and deposed the Emperor Romulus Augustulus. From then on, no Roman emperor would ever again rule from a post in Italy, leading many to cite 476 as the year the Western Empire suffered its deathblow.”

While, unlike Rome, America is not yet in any immediate threat of having its capitol sacked and raided by an outside force, since the terrorist attacks of 9/11 America has engaged in wars and military conflicts in the Middle East against modern day barbarians like Al Qaeda, ISIS and the Taliban. Culminating in America’s recent withdrawal from the war in Afghanistan.

Though the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have not directly threatened the American homeland, they have certainly weakened America. They have caused America to spend trillions in treasure, deploy countless human and material assets and resources, and distracted America from far more important priorities in both the domestic and foreign policy arenas. They have also hurt America’s credibility on the world stage and its ability to project power around the world, and shattered the myth of its invincibility. Exemplified by the humiliating sight of the Taliban returning triumphantly to power after 20 long years of war.

The failures in Afghanistan are not the result of any lack of resoluteness or prowess by America’s military forces, who, to the contrary, exhibited both in spades, holding and controlling a large, inhospitable, and ungovernable nation located on the other side of the world for 20 years. A remarkable achievement, perhaps unmatched by any military in history. No, the failure in Afghanistan is attributable to an absolute lack of will, vision, and competency on the part of America’s political leadership. This represents the largest and most dire problem that America faces, and is in many ways at the root of all the others. Indeed, it could rightly be called America’s Achilles heel.

The wars in the Middle East also caused America to take its focus away from other outside threats, most notably, that of China. While America expended enormous resources and focus in the Middle East, America allowed China to metastasize to an existential level threat to American power. History will show this to be a severe strategic blunder on America’s part, akin to spending time and energy removing a relatively innocuous wart, while ignoring the rapid growth of a potentially terminal tumor.

Unfortunately, however, China is not the only malignant disease that grew untreated while America was at war in the Middle East. Alas, it may not even be the most dangerous.

America’s domestic situation has rapidly deteriorated over the past 20 years as it concentrated on nation building abroad while neglecting to do the same at home. And now the days right before and directly after 9/11 appear in retrospect to be the apex of US domestic strength and unity, from which thereafter it was all downhill. And the world before 9/11, which I grew up in, seems now on so many levels a paradise long lost and forgotten; a veritable Eden from which we have been cast out.

There are numerous reasons of course for the rot and the decay that have crept into America, some long predating 9/11, and which will be discussed at length in other sections. But there can be no doubt that 9/11 and the wars and circumstances that followed contributed to and exacerbated all of them.

But while 9/11 and the wars in the Middle East have clearly caused America to decline, whether they will be a cause of its ultimate fall is yet to be seen. They do perhaps hold the seeds that may yet bring it about. They also, however, may hold the seeds for an entirely new rise.

For hope in this regard, America can look to the historical example of its comparative failure in Vietnam, and the domestic upheaval that surrounded it. Though America lost in Vietnam, again largely as the result of its political leadership, it rebounded quickly to ultimately triumph against its great rival the Soviet Union in the first Cold War, and became in only a few years time more powerful, and unified, than ever. A testament to America’s extraordinary regenerative powers.

Though as Johns Hopkins University scholar and renowned author Hal Brands notes the “US recovery didn’t happen automatically … it took a concerted effort to revive American power”. It also took a once in a generation leader in President Ronald Reagan and the Reagan revolution, taking over from the historically weak and inept Jimmy Carter, and replacing Carter’s Malaise with Morning in America.

Thus, America can recover from Afghanistan and the years of war in the Middle East and rise again, as it did after Vietnam. But it will take a concerted effort, smart and decisive policymaking, and an iron national will. None of this can occur, however, without strong political leadership, alongside a new generation of committed Patriots willing to do whatever it takes, to rebuild and remake America’s crumbling foundations, and return America once again to unparcelled greatness.

To that end, history has shown that often weak leadership begets strong leadership. That is, sometimes you need a Chamberlain to get a Churchill, or a Carter to get a Reagan. The trick of course is to survive weak leadership long enough and well enough to get to the other side. To avoid the fate of Rome, or that of the Soviet Union, will depend very much on America’s political leadership over the next few years. For therein lies the road to ruin or riches.